Our Opinion On The Polls

By Hubie and Bertie

The shockwaves are still reverberating from last night's Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll that showed Vice President Harris with a three-point lead over Benedict Donald in Iowa. Conducted by Selzer & Co., this survey of likely voters has a well-deserved reputation for accuracy. "Selzer’s Iowa poll is considered a gold-standard survey and could have implications in other Midwestern states that will help decide the election," Fortune magazine reported.

Pollster Ann Selzer was mildly taken aback herself. "It's hard for anybody to say they saw this coming," she said. But she attributed Harris's current strong standing to voters age 65 and up, particularly women. Women over 65, y'all! Iowa has a six-week abortion ban, and Boomer women remember the freedoms they had before the Supreme Court scuttled them. And boy, are they mad.

So, if Harris has indeed jumped out to a three-point lead in Iowa, how can she and Trump be running within the margin of error in all seven of the battleground states? Seems pretty counterintuitive.

Our theory: Swing-state voters have been absolutely pummeled by campaigns and pollsters, for weeks if not months. Their TVs are filled with ads. Their smartphones ping with constant texts. Strange phone numbers pop up on their screens. Battleground voters can't escape, and they're burned out. So how do you get a valid sample when so many people aren't answering their phones, or — if they do answer — play games to spite the caller? This leads us to believe that pollsters in swing states are surveying the same small subset of voters.

While there's a lot of campaigning going on in places like, say, Iowa, Kansas, and Alaska, it's nowhere near the frenzy in the battlegrounds. Which means fewer jaded voters, which in turn makes it easier for pollsters to get an accurate read. Also, in places like Iowa, the Harris spots running nationally on TV have a greater chance of breaking through, so they're making an impact. (Harris has been way outspending Trump on national ads, like the ones you see during football games.)

Bottom line? We're not accusing polls like The New York Times/Siena of inherent bias. But a survey like the Iowa poll or one by the Kansas Policy Institute has a greater chance of being accurate. We cats PURR.