We cats didn't expect to be back on the Blake Gendebien beat so soon, but the online politicos are agog today about a new Siena poll that shows him leading the unappealing Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino for Congress in NY-21, 46 percent to 42 percent. (Blake's on the left in the image above.)
This poll is within the margin of error, but it just adds to the pileup of headlines painting dire pictures for the Republicans in the run-up to the midterms. Elise "Elsie" Stefanik's would-be GOP successor running behind his Democratic opponent ranks right up there with other bad tidings for the Trumpsters — like the fact that there's a competitive Senate race in Kansas, of all places, or that Cook Political Report just shifted 18 more House ratings (including NY-21) the Democrats' way.
NY-21 hasn't elected a Democrat to the House since Bill Owens's re-election in 2012. It's tempting to view the Siena poll as symbolic of Trump's toxicity, but there are a number of reasons for this.
The Republicans had a messy primary. MAGAt Constantino ran against Assemblyman Robert Smullen, the establishment's choice, and went after him as you'd imagine any Trumpster would do. Things got so nasty that at one point, Smullen refused to shake Constantino's hand at an event. (Bad look.) Defamation lawsuits were flying. Some have declined to endorse Mr. Sticker Mule, with the Conservative Party (yes, New York is weird) leaving their ballot line blank rather than support him.
Constantino is volatile and unserious. Which is a polite way of saying that he behaves just like the malevolent Toddler-in-Chief. For example, the last time a poll showed him trailing Gendebien in the race, Constantino threatened to sue the pollster, SurveyUSA, and sic the FCC on the poll's sponsor, NewsChannel 13 in Albany. This is not the way a sensible grown-up conducts himself.
People are tired of the shtick. Polls and races across the country have shown voters' weariness with Benedict Donald and his entire road show of fear, chaos, and division. Constantino embodies all that.
Trump's trade war with Canada is killing the North Country. Constantino supports Donald's ridiculous tariffs, which is an incredibly stupid position to take in a district that views Canada as a neighbor and essential economic partner. But Constantino worships at the altar of Trump.
Blake Gendebien is a good candidate. Like other Democrats — like Adam Hamilton in Kansas — Blake is a thoughtful, non-bombastic person who listens to voters and addresses their concerns. He opposes the Trump policies that raise prices on NY-21's farmers and businesses. All of which means that even if he weren't leading Sticker Mule Man in the polls, we'd still be writing postcards for him. We cats PURR.
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