Wednesday, June 19, 2024

New Numbers

By Sniffles

While Republicans are doubling and tripling down on restricting women's reproductive rights and ignoring the Constitution by placing the Ten Commandments in Louisiana public schools (yes, the ACLU is instantly suing), President Biden is rising in the polls.

Is polling completely messed up these days? Absolutely. But since they set the news narrative, and since the best way to consume them is to examine trends over time, the latest movements are worth noting.

The big attention-getter today has been a new Fox "News" poll, in which Biden leads Benedict Donald for the first time since October. It's a seven-point gain for the President since March. But other polls are showing results, too: Echelon revealed a four-point Biden gain, a three-point gain in CBS/YouGov, and a two-point gain in Morning Consult, Yahoo/YouGov, and even The New York Times.

It's incremental — no enormous shifts — but it's steady. Here's why: As they've demonstrated in election after election over the last two years, voters are furious about Dobbs — even though Pundit World still tries to elide its influence. (Surely that's because pundits and their decision-makers are mostly men.) Trump also is taking a hit from Independent and Republican voters for his 34 felony convictions. Finally, the good news about the state of the economy appears to be reaching people at last. (Okay, media, it's time for you to start reporting the economic news accurately, without GOP spin.)

How do we know that these shifts are real? Just look at the behavior of the Murdoch press (escalating cheapfake videos) and the Republicans (in near-hysteria as they defend Trump at every turn). They know they're in trouble. And if Benedict Donald keeps gabbing about sharks, slurring his words, reading the instructions on his teleprompters verbatim, bragging about Dobbs, and threatening to uncancel student loan debt, they know it'll only get worse. We cats PURR.

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