State Fairs, And The State Of The Race(s)

By Miss Kubelik

Thanks to Governor Tim Walz's visit to the Minnesota State Fair today, we cats have rural America on our minds. (Although we'll pass on the pork chop on a stick for breakfast, thanks!) Specifically, we're thinking about Nebraska. A lot about Nebraska, actually.

Nebraska, as you may know, is funny. For 34 years, the state has awarded two Electoral College votes based on the statewide results, and one Electoral vote for each of its three Congressional districts. (Maine is the only other state that does something like this.)

Anyway, that's why you hear a lot of Democratic strategists talking about the importance of the "blue dot" — NE-02, the district in the east that encompasses Omaha. Traditionally evenly split between the two parties, the Second District presents Democrats with a viable pickup opportunity of a single Electoral vote, which in a close race can make a real difference. For example, Barack Obama targeted — and won — this district over John McCain in 2008.

Because Democrats have given NE-02 a lot of time and attention ever since, you probably won't be surprised to hear that a recent poll had Vice President Kamala Harris leading Benedict Donald there by five points. This is good. "Although it is worth just one Electoral vote, it may prove to be a crucial one," said Split Ticket/Survey USA, the conductor of the poll. "If Harris were to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, but lose the Sun Belt (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia), she would only have 269 electoral votes — necessitating a victory in Nebraska’s Second."

(Just for the record, we cats don't think Harris is going to lose Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia — but we'd be happy to bank NE-02 on our side nevertheless.)

BUT, but, but — here's a real stunner poll, also from Split Ticket/Survey USA: Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer only leads her Independent opponent, Dan Osborn, by a single point, 39 to 38 percent! Even with 23 percent undecided, this figure is pretty jaw-dropping, and confirmation that the Democrats' decision about how to handle the Senate race was a wise one. The pollsters helpfully explain:

"In hopes of turning a solidly Republican state competitive, Nebraska Democrats have chosen not to nominate a candidate, choosing instead to coalesce behind Osborn, a former Navy veteran and labor union leader. This move was initially met with a flurry of controversy — Osborn, a former Democrat, has declined to commit to caucusing with either party, has declined to endorse a Presidential candidate, and has explicitly refused the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. However, it would appear that this positioning is paying off at the moment."

In short, Mitch McConnell and the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee will probably be forced to spend money on a race that they thought would be a cakewalk. Hmmm, cakes... in celebration of this savvy campaign move, we cats will deign to indulge in an Amish doughnut from the Minnesota State Fair. And we PURR.