It turns out that the Matt for whom we were going to vote in yesterday's New York Congressional primary got some nice exposure in today's Times — coverage that may even inspire our former fellow citizens of NY-21 to give "Elsie" Stefanik a run for her money. More power to 'em, we say. And wouldn't it be loverly if she lost?
It's easy to succumb to that kind of thinking after last night's stunning Democratic victory by Pat Ryan in the NY-19 special election. Heck, even the cable news punditheads are admitting that maybe, maybe things don't look quite so dire for Democrats as they've insisted. Choice, guns, and defending democracy are definitely on the ballot, as Ryan has said, which is good for us.
However, when we cats publish our recommendations for House races to support in 2022, we probably (*sigh*) won't include NY-21. Here's the argument for that, in the words of one of our favorite political analysts:
"NY-19 is a swing district. It always goes slightly one way or the other. The polls that had the Republican winning by 10 points were obviously wrong. It was a swing district, we put in more work than the other side did, and we won it.
"Here's what we really learned: Biden narrowly won NY-19 in 2020. The Democrat narrowly won NY-19 last night. In other words, the swing districts are all in play. Democratic House candidates [in 2022] can hit Biden 2020-like numbers in their districts.
"So we focus our efforts and resources on the House districts where the vote was about 50-50 in 2020. Those are the races that are likely to be about 50-50 again in 2022. And those are the races we can win by rolling up our sleeves and shifting them by just one or two points.
"There's a reason I steered you toward NY-19 and not NY-23. NY-19 was going to be close, and was winnable if we put in the work. NY-23 is deep red. The Democrat impressively outperformed, but still lost by six points. Additional resources would not have turned it into a win.
"Mathematically, the NY-23 loss was arguably better news for the Democrats than the NY-19 win, because the Democrats outperformed by a bigger margin in NY-23. But no, we weren't going to be able to win NY-23, and the results prove as much.
"Last night confirmed the winning formula. Put your resources into 50-50 districts like NY-19, where it can mean the difference between a narrow loss and a narrow win."
This advice makes a whole lot of sense. We cats PURR.
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