Lots of chatter today about two CBS News polls of Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire. In Iowa, which holds its Republican caucus on January 15, Donald Trump is at 58 percent, followed by Ron DeSantis at 22, Nikki Haley at 13, and the rest of the gang under 10.
The 2024 New Hampshire primary follows a week later, on January 23. At the moment, Trump is at 44 percent, with Haley at 29, DeSantis at 11, and everybody else, as in New Hampshire, under 10. (Asa Hutchinson has about 1 percent. Way to go, Asa!)
Both states assign delegates according to proportional representation. In Iowa, there's no minimum percentage for a candidate to win delegates — so if Asa Hutchinson pulls in his 1 percent, he gets somebody! But in New Hampshire, you have to meet a threshold of 10 percent. (Could be tough news for Vivek Ramacrazypants.)
The chatterers are choosing to make the news all about Haley, although it's not the only big political story today: DeSantis has gotten some additional campaign turmoil with another high-level PAC resignation. (And a heckler. What fun!) But reviewing the numbers, what does Benedict Donald do? There are a few possibilities.
Assuming the CBS poll is correct, Trump will take a decisive win in Iowa and brand anybody who doesn't out-and-out beat him as a "loser." That's predictable enough.
But what about New Hampshire? Does Trump look at a 15-point margin over Haley and decide to let it alone, in the assumption that her second place serves him by finally finishing off DeSantis? Or does he start attacking Haley more than he already has? (Example: "Birdbrain doesn’t have the TALENT or TEMPERAMENT to do the job," he posted after the second Presidential debate.)
New Hampshire is a quirky state, so Donald might want to be a little careful. But we're sure he's not worried. After Iowa and New Hampshire comes the Nevada primary/caucus, which he's nicely rigged for himself. Ever wonder why he says Democrats rig stuff? Because he does it himself. Every accusation is a confession, and we cats HISS.
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