Recent survey results from several states have gotten our attention in a big way.
The following Democratic candidates are now leading or are statistically tied with their Republican opponents: Jack Conway for Kentucky Senate, Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, Alexi Giannoulias for President Obama's old seat in Illinois, and Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania.
Are these polls accurate? Don't get us wrong — we're happy — but it's hard to know. First, the turnout models are broken. Second, assuming they get turnout correct, it's almost impossible for pollsters to get an accurate voter sample because they aren't calling cell phones. Third, both political parties are using partisan pollsters to move media coverage. And finally, whether for PR or prestige value, organizations that have little business polling something as complicated as a midterm are jumping in with their own surveys. Marshall University, anyone?
The good news is that if the turnout models are indeed broken, pollsters are probably undercounting the Democratic vote. But that said, we cats think that this flurry of recent surges for Conway, Feingold, Giannoulias and Sestak is possible evidence of our fellow Democrats coming home.
Yes, we know the media have predicted a huge GOP sweep — thanks to poll responses to generic ballot questions and the perception that voters are mad as hell. But as an old political sage we know has observed, the only way to know what's really going on is to have intelligence on each and every race.
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