We cats find this recent Republican-establishment Jeb! boomlet hilarious. The talking heads not only utterly ignore the fact that the crazy right-wing base hates him — they never discuss anything substantive about what a Jeb! campaign is going to look like. That is: They never say where Jeb! is actually supposed to win.
Seriously, where? Especially since Jeb!, true to his silver-platter upbringing, has made it clear that he wants the nomination without having to work for it. So in which state in the GOP's early primary calendar will he start his, ahem, inevitable march to the nomination?
Not in Iowa. We don't see Jeb! campaigning his tail off in all 99 counties like Rick Santorum did and probably will again. Plus, Christian conservatives despise him for "letting" Terri Schiavo die.
New Hampshire? Those mavericky folks in the Granite State occasionally like to kick the Republican establishment in the teeth. (Remember 1992? We bet the Bush family does.) Besides, as in Iowa, voters there like a candidate who practices hard-core retail politics. Is Jeb! willing to slog door-to-door, diner-to-diner, for days and weeks on end? Not.
South Carolina? Forget it. He's nowhere near crazy enough.
Even Nevada, which is a possible win, could pose some dangers for Jeb! The conventional (and stupid) wisdom is that he'll ride to victoria in Nevada because, being married to a Mexican and speaking Spanish, he'll win back the Hispanic vote. But with the base on fire about illegal immigration being an "act of love," what happens if the father of "the little brown ones" doesn't get enough of a win in Nevada? Sounds like New Hampshire '92 (see above).
Nope, we're not seeing much of a Bush bandwagon here. By the time they get around to the Florida primary, in fact, somebody else — or a few somebody elses — could already have won four states and be well on the way to Vegas (or wherever the convention will be). No, we cats predict that if he runs, Jeb! will be a 2016 version of the 2008 Giuliani campaign: Cause a premature stir in Pundit World; get embarrassed in the early states; bet everything on Florida and come up empty. We cats can't wait, and we PURR.
No comments:
Post a Comment