There's a lot to quibble about the latest New York Times/Siena poll. When you see that the Times poll has Trump leading among likely voters by four points, 48 to 44 percent, you see that this is a gain of six points for Trump since December. No other polls have found a GOP surge like this — or even a GOP lead. So long story short, the Times results don't show up in other recent polls that show the race to be close and competitive. This is where thoughtful observers think the race is now.
The Times poll also has Trump winning both women and Hispanics — "an impossibility," say major analysts. Its likely voter electorate is plus-3 Republican — a silly scenario, based on the last eight Presidential elections back to 1992. "Overestimating their intensity and strength and underestimating ours was a central reason so many saw the 'red wave' that never came in 2022," says political strategist Simon Rosenberg.
But what distresses us most is that this stupid poll provides the launching pad for a zillion more stories in the MSM about how much trouble President Biden is in and we're all doomed. Ugh.
There's no question: The current state of American political journalism is embarrassing. In the old days, on-the-ground reporters like Jack Germond would insist on things like visiting actual candidate phone banks, to make sure that they knew what was really happening at the grass roots. Today, nobody does that — and the media lazily rely on methodologically compromised polls and anecdotal interviews of Trump supporters in Midwestern diners. We cats hate it, and we HISS.
No comments:
Post a Comment