Friday, June 10, 2016
Being sophisticated political observers, we cats know that the only Presidential polls that really count are battleground and other state polls, since it's the Electoral College that hands over the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. But it's still fun to see the recent string of national polls in which Donald Drumpf is drooping.
Reuters/Ipsos, IDB/TPP, and Republican pollsters from Rasmussen and FOX "News" are all showing Hillary Clinton up over Drumpf by anywhere between three and eight points — reflecting pretty healthy swings over previous polls that had Drumpf slightly leading and Democrats reaching for the defibrillators. It appears these new polls were taken after Drumpf's huge "Mexican-judge" meltdown and before Hillary's history-making celebration on Tuesday.
A few thoughts are in order.
1. The most interesting results are Rasmussen's, since Rasmussen is never right.
2. No one can predict turnout in November, so whatever sample these polls are using is probably wrong. At the same time, though, we know that it's not the polls that are reliable — it's the trends. And we're sure these polls aren't yet capturing the full impact of the Judge Curiel blowback.
3. The next round of polling will also reflect Tuesday's Clinton tsunami and yesterday's big day of Democratic unity.
4. Rest assured that these polls are being circulated at Willard Mitt Romney's big GOP-elite confab in Utah today. It would be fun to be in the same room with the likes of Rancid Pieface, Bill Kristol, Erick Erickson and Hugh Hewitt when they see these numbers.
5. Now is the time for Democrats across the country to pour it on in key states — like Hillary and Obama are doing next week in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Put the likely-Dem states away immediately, get aggressive about putting states like Georgia and Arizona either in play or on the margins, and move another round of states, like Colorado and Nevada, from the lean-blue to safe-blue column before Labor Day. And be fearless about putting Senate races in North Carolina, Indiana, Arizona and Iowa into play as top Democratic pickups.
Other than all that, ignore these polls. We cats PURR.