As if Democrats weren't spooked enough by the hideous memories of 2016, pundits and tweeps are now bringing up the specter of 1988. That year, after a successful convention, Democratic Presidential nominee Michael Dukakis led then-Vice President George H.W. Bush in national polls by 17 points.
OMG, they scream, Joe Biden's leading Trump, but what if....?!?!?!?
Raising the Dukakis debacle is a fair point. But it happens to be one to which we cats have plenty of responses. Here's a short (or maybe not so short) list of why 2020 is not 1988.
Polling today is much more sophisticated, and there are many more polls to average together and cancel out the outliers.
Team Dukakis was running against Lee Atwater and his merry band of vicious campaign cutthroats who pioneered their craft during the Reagan era. Today, except for Atwater — who died of brain cancer in 1991 — every one of those guys is a Never Trumper working to defeat Benedict Donald via The Lincoln Project and other noble ventures. (P.S.: Atwater also apologized for his behavior before his death. Just sayin'.)
Bill Stepien is no Lee Atwater, not with the embarrassing Chris Christie for President campaign on his resume. And the demoted Brad "Weird Beard" Parscale is not even a Bill Stepien.
Michael Dukakis had no Dukakis precedent (i.e., nominated Democrat blowing a huge lead) to scare him. Team Biden has 1988 and 2016 to motivate them every day, and disturb their dreams every night. Overconfidence will not be their problem.
Nobody likes Trump. Even he says it. Thirty-two years ago, there were actually people who liked George H.W. Bush.
Bush had a relatively popular Ronald Reagan to vouch for his character. Trump has a bunch of clowns and Looney Tunes to vouch for his. And he certainly can't turn to the last Republican President for a hearty endorsement.
Dukakis was trying to forge a limited path to 270 electoral votes after Democrats had gotten obliterated in 1980 and 1984. Biden has many more, and wider, paths today. And Republicans have lost the popular vote in five of the last six elections.
Finally, Joe Biden is not getting into a tank. We cats PURR.
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