Monday, January 30, 2012

Going Willard's Way

By Baxter

This is not a cartoon, but a serious graph by Nate Silver at The New York Times depicting the Romneybots' most-upbeat scenario in tomorrow's Florida primary.

But since Nerdstrodamus gives Willard a 97 percent chance of winning the Sunshine State, rose-colored glasses for the Rommey camp are not required. In fact, if you're a teabagger who hates the moderate from Massachusetts, we cats think it's time you moved on to other battles.

As always with these things, though, there's a downside for the expected victor. Romney is shining so brightly in Florida polls these days that we think he must win by 15 or more points tomorrow — or he'll go down in GOP primary history as an epic fail of embarrassing proportions.

And since expectations are now so high, a mere five-point spread between him and Newtie — which we admit would be a surprise — would also qualify as a loss. (On the other hand, a Romney win going away would make our right-wing friends at Free Republic go bats.)

Of course, that's assuming the votes get counted. Since Florida doesn't have a very good track record that way — and since the Iowa GOP kinda fell short this year, too — that remains to be seen.

UPDATE: It's Tuesday night, and there are no surprises. But the margin of victory has dropped to 16 percent. We cats are really sorry we didn't say Willard had to win by 20! More thoughts on the 2012 Republican clown college tomorrow.

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