More Clowns in the College? (Part II)

By Baxter

It's interesting to re-read Larry Sabato's argument from back in early December 2011 that the cast of characters in the 2012 Republican Presidential race is by no means set in stone. More clowns could be waiting in the wings, and could make their entrances soon.

We cats don't want to get into eye-glazing details, but here it is in a nutshell: This year's GOP delegate selection process is "back loaded," Sabato's senior columnist Rhodes Cook argues, with enough delegates allocated after Super Tuesday in caucuses and winner-take-all primary states to clinch the nomination.

"Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida," Cook writes, "another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible."

Okay — so. Let's look at what's happened in the six weeks since that argument was posted.

Willard Mitt Romney "won" the Iowa caucuses — and then he lost them. He won the New Hampshire primary. And he's on the verge of possibly losing in South Carolina tomorrow. Indeed, by Sunday "Mr. Inevitability" could suddenly be one for three.

Now, with Florida probably not predicable at this point, the pundits would posit that surely Romney will go on to win in Nevada (February 4) and Michigan (February 28). But even if he does, what good is that? He will have proven only that he can win in a New England state he's lived in, a midwestern state he was born and raised in, and a western state in which the Republican electorate is dominated by the Mormon church. (Utah's primary, in case you're wondering, isn't until June 26.)

So, to the extent the 2012 general election will be fought on that battlefield and that battlefield only, Willard's a winner. Not much of a selling point, is it? We cats wonder if any Republicans are starting to wake up to this, and if so, whether any of them read Larry Sabato.

Mark our words, this isn't done yet. Lots of "dream-candidate" names will again be floated, from the Indiana Chinless Wonder to that cold-hearted accountant from Wisconsin. But we cats see only two real late-entry possibilities: Jeb Bush, or the famous quitter from Alaska.

As Willard himself would say, "Time will tell."

(IMAGE: Yes, we know this technically is a clown car, not a college. But we couldn't resist.)